JJ's Space

What Went Wrong?

2006-09-08T06:33:00.000-07:00

Sure, I could list the sixty thousand injury concerns, but what fun would that be? Everyone with a brain, even Yankee fans, is well aware that injuries took their toll on the 2006 Boston Red Sox; so let's move beyond that. Three things that have gone wrong that aren't in the Globe on a daily basis:

1) The Coco Crisp switcheroo: The gamble on Crisp transitioning well to Centerfield bombed tremendously. Why the front office believed Crisp could convert to CF when the Indians had already tried, and failed, to make Crisp a centerfielder was beyond me at the time - speed alone does not make a centerfielder. Furthermore, Crisp had shown considerable promise as a hitter, however he had done so mostly from lower slots in the line-up, not the projected leadoff role he was penciled into here. Crisp was not, and is not, a disciplined hitter fitting the prototype the Sox front office looks for in leadoff hitters. While that is not an indictment on Crisp, it is an indictment on the Sox Front Office for attempting to vainly put a square block into a circular hole. With Crisp trying to adjust to a new city, a new position, and a new and ever-changing spot in the lineup, I was far from surprised at his struggles. The Sox can survive in 2007 with Crisp as a centerfielder because in 2008 they may very well have a slot for Crisp open in LF, and a young CF ready to take over at the MLB level, Jacoby Ellsbury. Crisp is a fine defensive leftfielder, and he should be returned to that slot as soon as possible where he will nearly undoubtedly be an asset to his team.

2) Beckett has a track record of success at a very young age: What you say? How could that be a major factor in what went wrong this season? Please allow me to explain. Beckett, like most Marlins pitchers, moved quickly through the system - partially due to need. While Beckett statistically may have warranted promotion at each interval, his development, we now are seeing, was severely stunted by the accelerated promotions. In lower levels, Beckett was able to succeed relying solely on blowing fastballs by hitters. In achieving successful numbers by doing so, I can imagine young Beckett felt little need to work on peripheral pitches or learning how to pitch. After all, his numbers looked good and the promotions never stopped. In the MLB he succeeded on the grandest stage, the World Series, and an "ace" was made. But this "ace" still didn't know how to pitch. Fast forward to Beckett's arrival in Boston. He experienced major growing pains and continues to throw harder when in trouble, rather than relying on scouting reports and secondary pitches to get outs. So what does young and having success have to do with it? In the back of Beckett's mind, he knows this approach has worked, and his age makes him a particular risk for the dread affliction that affects so many young players . . . thick headedness. Because Beckett has succeeded, in my opinion, it makes it that much harder for him to accept that he needs to change his approach to succeed now. Hopefully within the coming months, he will have a Schilling-esque awakening as realize how good he could be if he started to use his mind more, like most of the all time greats have done.

3) Losing patience with Bard: Learning to catch a knuckleball takes time and practice. It took time for Mirabelli, and Varitek has had a rough time when he hasn't had the reps needed to stay fresh on the practice. But the front office gave up too soon on the Bard experiment, seemingly caving in to popular demand to reclaim Mirabelli. While this move probably hurt the 2006 Red Sox squad a bit (in that Meredith may have gotten a shot this season, minus the bases-loaded introductory experience), it has certainly hurt the 2007 and beyond squads. Bard has caught fire in the weaker NL, but he isn't the only individual to make Sox fans regret mocking those who "overvalue" prospects and advocate patience with new players. Meredith has been a shining beacon of bullpen stability since his arrival in San Diego. Bard has put up numbers that only the most optimistic scout could conjure up upon seeing his performance in a Sox uniform. And many Sox fans have now swapped sides and now regret being so adamantly against Bard in the first place. The Sox veered from their plan of long-term competitiveness when they hit the panic button and reacquired Mirabelli, who has been an offensive hole since rejoining the club. Bard's bat and glove would have been greatly appreciated when Varitek went down with an injury, sparing Sox fans the horror of watching Javy Lopez catch a Josh Beckett curve with runners in scoring position, and follow that by grounding out weakly to the second baseman.

What to do . . .

2006-08-23T18:38:00.000-07:00

Well, since Red Sox Nation has officially mailed it in, minus the irrationally optimistic folks we all know - people who can look at a 40-car pile-up and celebrate that it wasn't a 41-car pile-up - allow me to look at 2007 for you.

So, what do we do once the season ends? Well, we rebuild, for one. I remain truly optimistic that we CAN compete next year, in a major way. Maybe not win the division in 2007 (though in 2008 and beyond, I can see the tides changing), but be a front-runner for the AL Wild Card. Five key moves to get us there that need to be made this off-season.

1) Trade an OFer to the Angels (our strength), for a middle infielder (their strength). No, no, no - not THAT OFer! Here's the deal - Coco Crisp for Brandon Wood. The Angels need some speed in the OF (C'mon, Garrett Anderson?) and Coco's skills would be FAR more utilized in the speed-oriented and aggressive Angels offense. Coco could play LF and become far more valuable defensively, and Figgins can continue in CF. Wood would be a welcome bump in offense, providing some power in a power-hungry system, as well as allowing us to only pursue a part-time SS capable of filling in temporarily if Wood needs some time in the AAA next year (Cora?). With Kendrick, Aybar, and Cabrera around, and Figgins capable of filling in - the Angels can let him go. With Murphy, Pena, and Ellsbury on the horizon, we can move Coco. This deal, unlike the Manny deal, can work because there's no pitching involved and two young players fitting the needs of the respective teams.

2) Go out and sign Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's certainly a risk - young with some wear on his arm and no proven track record in MLB. But he has been ridiculously good in Japan, and done well on an international stage. The Sox get to make a blind bid for exclusive rights to negotiate. While there is NO chance the Sox can win his services by sticking to the low risk mentality, they CAN get him by making a generous bid. The money going towards negotiation rights does not count against the payroll - only the cost of the contract would. That money would be quickly recouped by the instant appeal the Red Sox would have to a market we have yet to enter with any real zeal. That’s me speaking Lucchino and Werner's language. Here's me speaking Theo's language - he's young with a ton of potential and can be locked down to anchor our rotation with the equally young Papelbon, Beckett and Lester for years to come. That's four potential aces, two of which are locked down at a very low rate, and two at higher rates (not high if they become aces though). It won't hurt us and will probably end up even in the end, but could quite possibly turn out to be one helluva bargain. If he cannot be signed, the Sox need to go bid quickly on Schmidt and lock him up for 3 years with an option for the 4th year.

3) Move Clement to the BP. I know it sounds completely counterproductive because of his mental strength, but bear with me. He's a bust as a starter, but he has a great slider and pure stuff. It's the mental approach that kills him - an approach that kills starters more than relievers in my humble opinion. His numbers suggest he's better the first few batters he sees, and progressively gets worse as the game goes on. So basically the choice for Theo is whether or not to pay him to pitch elsewhere. Before you do that, might as well see if this is a role more conducive to success AND helping the Sox. Worst-case scenario - he's Rudy Seanez redux and we end up eating the contract anyhow. Best case - he's pretty good and we get at least some contribution from him for OUR team. Oh yeah, and a warm body for the pen that we already have figured into our budget.

4) Trade for a minor league catcher with some upside . . . possibly work Mathis or Napoli into the Crisp for Wood trade by adding a pitcher or OF prospect. Another option is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, currently blocked by McCann in Atlanta (maybe for Murphy plus a middle-tier prospect).

5) Explore options for the following players: Brad Lidge (trade), Roy Oswalt (trade), Roger Clemens (FA), Ted Lilly (FA), David Dellucci (FA for bench) - and my pipe dream, Miguel Cabrera (at season's end, I'm calling the Marlins and offering Hansen [still a top prospect and Marlins favorite], plus Buchholz or Bowden [two top starting prospects having great years], plus another midlevel prospect of their picking [like Murphy, Moss, Pauley, or maybe even Martinez]).

Is the Sky Falling?

2006-08-09T21:05:00.000-07:00

Sox fans - breathe. Remember, this year was supposed to be an off year. We were warned. And we have been told that Theo is not going to sacrifice our future for a fleeting present - he's fixed on greater things. I know it's tough to stay calm in the heat of any pennant race now that we have "the taste" of what Championships feel like, but would you rather be the 2002 Angels, or have a Red Sox Dynasty on par with those of our foes to the South? Some offer a compromise, the Braves - a string of dominance, but only one title. How can I not worry about that?

I do see a similarity with the Braves - we have a young core of pitchers that came from our farm system. I’m not particularly worrying that we'll become perennial contenders, but never champs. We have the money to buy the extra toys that Atlanta had to make due without. The Braves had to find career journeymen to turn into gold, while the Sox can shop the top talent.

What about this developing reluctance to part with prospects? First off that's a lot of tomfoolery. Theo has shown he will part with prospects, provided he gets someone young and under our control back in the deal, but it seems to be very significant that the returning talent meet these criteria. Cases in point?

1) Andy Marte was swapped for Coco Crisp - who has a much lower ceiling, but had shown he was an effective major leaguer who was also cost controlled and under our control. He's still not really in his prime, so there's room for improvement. Marte fit a desperate need in our organization - pure power with solid defense at a corner position. We have a lot of crap at the corners in the farm - he would have been HUGE.

2) Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez were swapped for Josh Beckett. We hear a lot about Hanley - he was a power prospect with solid defense and superstar potential. He's done well for himself as a rookie in the NL and shown flashes of his predicted ceiling. Scouts talked about Anibal in the same conversation as Papelbon and Lester. Some thought his combination of stuff possibly would allow him to succeed most of all, but obviously that's completely subjective. What isn't subjective is that we traded a top pitching prospect (hard to come by) and another highly sought prospect for Beckett (and Lowell). Beckett met Theo's criteria: young, under our control for more than a year, and cost controlled. Still had room for improvement. I realize this move happened while he was not a part of the organization, but it was made with this same philosophy in mind and I highly doubt Anibal and Hanley would have been traded for Jason Schmidt.

3) This year, Lester was offered up for Oswalt, allegedly. If not Lester, at least Hansen was on the block. I'm not sure this move would have put us over the edge, but at worst I would have been ambivalent about it. Oswalt is a proven pitcher who is still young. He has had stretches where he has utterly dominated the NL - something that one needs to do to even stand a chance in the AL. Oswalt would have been under our control for another season where we'd get to negotiate exclusively with him and offer arbitration. If he left, we would have gotten compensation and been able to further supplement our farm system with said picks. Lester is one of this organization's best prospects in YEARS, and has been contributing to the MLB team, yet was on the block for someone who filled the same role, but had more experience.

Now, I think there is possibly another thing at play. What you frequently hear about GM's is that since their job depends on the product on the field, they'd rather those people be THEIR guys. With baseball teams, the turnover is often a lot slower than with other sports because of guaranteed contracts and the length of time it takes for draft picks to reach the majors.

Theo's guys are just beginning to infiltrate the ranks. Since he has always put a great deal of emphasis in youth, I'm not surprised that the guys he wants to count on in the long term are guys he hand picked. Yes, you can hand pick guys via trades, but a portion of any trade is determined by the other team and out of one's control. Perhaps this is a thickheaded ego thing, but it's not different than all other GM's who prefer to put their job on the line with hand-selected players. This theory at work could explain some of the free agent departures.

Also, as has been stated before, there wasn't much out there that could really alter our season. Those players that were available - Oswalt and Clemens, for instance - were fully investigated as options, with fair deals being proposed. The deals worth spending time on received all of the attention. The other moves only would have been useful if our big holes were plugged first (for instance, adding Cormier makes little sense if our starters can't hand the BP a lead and our offense can't score enough to come back in the majority of the games Cormier would have appeared in).

While we have weak links, that alone doesn't explain our play as of late. The Yanks, for instance, had some seriously weak links predating the deadline - and yet they played through them, coped, sacked up, and still managed to gain ground on us. The issue with the Sox isn't merely our weak links, it's underperformance - and there weren't enough chips on the table to markedly improve this squad. It's not just a cost issue.

Thus far, we have been spoiled. This squad has competed more than I expected and, as a result, some of the progress of our younger core has been put on hold. Because we have competed and it’s so hard for us to concede a year, people are emotional about Theo standing pat when an incredibly weak crop of talent made it’s way into the market. That market was not worth conceding our future for, and the FO did its due diligence on those that would have been worth our future.

Theo’s reputation is on the line with the 2007 and 2008 squad, so I expect us to be active this off-season. Veterans will be on the market for packages of young talent. I expect some of our farm system to be made available for other young talent a year or two from free agency because we have the financial power to lock proven players up. I expect most of our free agents to be let go. We need to see the transition to start showing itself, because right now, we’re stuck in a limbo of competing, but not being totally ready with the guys Theo wants on the field.

The All-Trade Bait Team

2006-07-26T15:38:00.000-07:00

In honor of the recently lapsed trade deadline - I bring to you my "All-Trade bait Team". There's quite a haul of hitting talent on the team, but a definite lack of defensive ability. While some of these players were actively shopped, others were only dangled out there for a short period of time in fits of desperation. So, without further ado, the starting line-up:

C: Javy Lopez. Sure, he can't really catch anymore, but let's not let technicalities get in the way. The market was barren for catchers, and with the sinking Orioles trying to rid themselves of certain contracts, Lopez was available.

1b: Ryan Shealy OR Sean Casey. I like Shealy, but at least Casey has a track record in MLB. Neither is fantastic defensively.

2b: Ronnie Belliard. There were some solid, but not spectacular, 2b on the market, including Mark Loretta, Tony Graffanino, Todd Walker, and Ronnie Belliard. I took the latter. He's got a little pop and isn't as limited defensively as some of the other options.

3b: Mike Lowell. He has cooled off a little bit, but has slugged this season, while hitting for a solid average, being a positive presence in the clubhouse, and playing very well at 3b.

SS: Julio Lugo. I know Miguel Tejeda was on the market, but his range is so abysmal right now that scouts around the league think he needs a positional change, or to take over as fulltime DH. So I'm going with Julio Lugo who can swing the bat with some power, as well as flash the glove. However, who know what he'd do in an actual pennant race, he hasn't exactly had a lot of experience there . . .

LF: Alfonso Soriano. This was a tough call with Carlos Lee available, but he slots in later . . . As for Soriano, the man has feasted in the NL, and would be wise to stay in the weaker league where he doesn't see as many breaking balls (which added to his K totals) when he resigns somewhere as a free agent.

CF: Andruw Jones. He's still in his prime, despite being in the league for a decade! Jones is an above-average CF who would be hitting better if placed in a lineup where he wasn't required to be then ENTIRE offense.

RF: Bobby Abreu. He's had a tough season power-wise, but the atmosphere in Philly seems to be a huge component in their losing ways. His defense isn't as good as hyped, but he sure can hit and get on base.

DH: Carlos Lee. This was tough because I was tempted with Pat Burrell and Miguel Tejeda, among others. But in the end I like that Lee has phenomenal success with very little production around him at times.

SP: Roger Clemens. While he wasn't made available because of the owner, he would have approved a trade to one team - the Boston Red Sox. Clemens' record doesn't relay his continued dominance because of the poor offense, but he's still dealing.

SP: Roy Oswalt. He was dangled for a slugger, via the Red Sox. Oswalt has a track record of success and is still young.

SP: Greg Maddux. Maddux is a professional, through and through, and has had a successful season for an awful squad.

SP: Kip Wells. Wells has had some success as of late. He was also better than the majority of the pitching options that were made available.

SP: Jake Westbrook. The Indians briefly dangled him, but there wasn't much coming back. Westbrook is average, but has had some runs of success.

RP: Aaron Heilman
RP: Scott Linebrink
RP: Rheal Cormier
RP: Bob Wickman
SU: Tom Gordon
CL: Brad Lidge. He's had a tough time this year, but he's got some serious stuff. I'd take a risk that all he needs is a change of scenery.

Buy or Sell - NL WEST

2006-07-19T16:17:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the delay folks - between a couple of ball games, a concert, a new job, and some unbelievable family issues (really, they are unbelievable), I've not been able to sit down and work on this. I'll try harder, though!

The NL West is an odd beast where parity within the division rules (all teams are within 5.0 games of first). But with even competition, there is no decisively better team, nor is there a particularly good team (all are .500ish teams), which makes for excitingly boring playoff race - if such a thing is possible. To put it frankly, I don't see any NL West team as capable of winning the World Series, or even making it that far.

San Diego: Buy

Needs: San Diego has gotten decent pitching from most of their rotation, with the notable exception of Jake Peavy. They need him to turn it around in the 2nd half. The Padres need an infusion of power in the infield, including 3b (there have been whispers of interest in Mike Lowell and Shea Hillenbrand before the latter was picked up by rival SF). Giles has had pedestrian power numbers, and as a result, the OF could use a boost in power from an outside source.

Chips: Peavy has made it into whispers, though he is extremely unlikely to be moved because of his age, talent, and contract. Reliever Linebrink has been talked about as someone they could dangle to add a bat, and has probably become expendable with the acquisition of Scott Williamson from the Cubs. Klesko will be available upon his return from the DL.

San Francisco: Buyer

Needs: This team needs someone to protect Bonds in the lineup, provided Bonds is still between the lines and not behind bars. The starters aren't great, but the offense makes it hard for any pitcher to win. This team's window is closing after this season, with Schmidt and Bonds free agents and a very old squad with little depth in the ill-tended system. They could use some added mobility in the OF, as well as more power from the CFer. The Giants could use a little more depth in the bullpen, like everyone else, especially with the troubles of Benitez. The team helped itself by acquiring Shea Hillenbrand from the Blue Jays for pitcher Accardo.

Chips: Schmidt is their biggest chip and San Francisco should take the best deal on the table for him, rather than settle for a draft pick if he leaves. Chances are he'll still be a Giant after the deadline passes, though. The Giants have a solid young catcher, Alfonzo, who has performed well in limited time (5 HR in 99 ABs)

Los Angeles: Buyer

Needs: Furcal has not lived up to his lofty 2005 season, but there aren't many replacements on the market. The Dodgers haven't gotten any power out of their 3b since Bill Mueller went down, but Garciaparra has played like his old self at 1b and drastically outperformed his 2004 and 2005 seasons. Lofton could be upgraded should anyone hit the market (LA can afford just about anyone). The Dodgers have endured injuries in the rotation and the bullpen (namely, Gagne), and could use help in either department.

Chips: Los Angeles has the farm system to acquire just about anyone if the seller is looking for young talent. Andy LaRoche, Joel Gonzalez, Chad Billingsley (currently on the team) and Russell Martin (on MLB team) are several prospects prospective sellers will ask for in exchange for top talent. The out-of-grace Odalis Perez has also been shopped to pitching-hungry teams

Arizona: Hold

Needs: Arizona jumped out of the gates looking like a young contender, but either inexperience or clubhouse dramatics (ahem, Jason Grimsley) have slowed them as of late. Arizona has possibly the best feeder system in the bigs and has several young players learning on the big stage. They don't really have a need for the time being, just a need for players to get some experience under their belts.

Chips: Again, the Dbacks really aren't sellers because their team is so young. Luis Gonzalez has had some issues with ownership and could be had if a team is willing to take on his contract. Shawn Green is another veteran outfielder on the market that could help an ailing contender (LAA, NYY, DET?). The DBacks will not move any of their young talent and would be wise to hang onto a veteran or two to teach the youngsters.

Colorado: Seller

Needs: The Rockies need a better campaign from their SS than they have seen this year - Barmes was much better in his rookie year before injuring himself in shady circumstances. Many of their young players are playing exceptionally well, but the power numbers have yet to develop in most of them. The Rockies need help at catcher.

Chips: Any of their rotation members could be moved (Jennings, Francis, Cook, Fogg, Kim) to a contender needing a #3-#5 starter. Because Helton is an immovable contract, prospect Ryan Shealy should be moved to a team who can play him, especially since he's getting older and has torn up every level of MiLB and deserves to be in the bigs. There has been talk between the Red Sox and Rockies revolving around a bullpen arm for Shealy, who the Sox have been interested in since last year's ill-fated Shoppach for Shealy swap. Ray King has also been thrown around as a trading chip.

Buy or Sell - NL CENTRAL

2006-07-09T11:48:00.000-07:00

St. Louis - Buy or hold

Needs: St. Louis just acquired Jeff Weaver, an innings eater, to help bolter the rotation, but really needs Mulder to return healthy as the #1 starter. The bullpen has been plagued by inconsistency or consistent mediocrity - including from their closer, Jason Isringhausen. The production from 2b has been lackluster and could certainly use a boost if someone hits the market. They could stand for a catching upgrade, especially if it adds some pop (which could use some bolstering) to the line-up.

Chips: The Cardinals have received decent production from back-ups such as Hector Luna and John Rodriguez and could use that depth to upgrade a starting position. However, other than pitching, the Cardinals don't have any deep needs that justify weakening some other aspect of the team, so I really expect them to hold and maybe make a few waiver claims or small trades using bit MiLB players to acquire a role player for the big club.

Cincinnati - Buy

Needs: Like every team, the Reds could sure use some pitching. Arroyo has over performed and one has to wonder if he'll fall back to Earth as teams become accustomed to him. They really need an upgrade to the 4th slot and a 5th starter. Acquiring Guardado was a smart, low-risk move for an awful bullpen in dire need of assistance. The Reds could use more production from their 3b, and a boost from SS and Catcher.

Chips: The Reds don't have a particularly strong farm system, but could use their OF depth to improve the team if they really want to be a serious contender. Freel is a very solid back up, and Kearns, Dunn and Griffey Jr. are always thrown around as trade possibilities. Homer Bailey (P) has been stellar for Chattanooga (0 Earned runs in 17.0 innings), but should be off limits for all but the best available talent (Willis, Zito?). OFer Jay Bruce is doing really well for Dayton, but other prospects have struggled in 2006.

Milwaukee - Buy or Hold

Needs: Milwaukee is in a weird place - they need to get hot to make the playoffs, but they aren't really a seller, so I expect they'll make some token moves, but nothing that will put them over the edge. I know, it's like a broken record - they need more pitching and a consistently healthy Ben Sheets to pair with a solid Capuano. The rumor mill has Milwaukee inquiring about old-timer Maddux - only a puddle-jumper away in Chicago. Rickie Weeks has been a great help as a hitter, but is incredibly weak as a defender, but probably won't be traded because he's young; likewise for the currently injured J.J. Hardy at SS. The bullpen is terrible

Chips: For the most part, the Brewers won't part with more than a 'name' player who is underperforming (BP guy?) and some token minor leaguers because this is a team that finally has a direction and the players ready to take the reigns (Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, Clark, Capuano, Sheets). Veterans who could be moved include Cirillo (though that will weaken the team) and Jenkins. Strongest bet to leave? Carlos Lee has drawn some interest because of his strong campaign and is probably their most valuable available chip to improve the team for the long-term.

Houston - Buy

Needs: Unless the Astros have a huge drop in the standings, they'll buy because the core of this team is getting older and their window is vanishing quickly. They should be able to get by with their pitching, but they REALLY need hitting (Roger, don't you wish you went to Boston?). An easy way to help would be some power in the meager OF. The Astros should be playing Lamb more than Ensberg at 3rd. Ausmus seems like he's more suited to a back-up role at this stage in his career. Maybe a trade for Lugo would help at SS.

Chips: Lidge has struggled this season, and I don't think he's untouchable - though I doubt he'd be traded unless it netted a significant part for this team. I think other teams would still have interest in the still-young Lidge. Preston Wilson always seems to be available at this time of year. If the Astros skid after the All-Star break, you will hear whispers about Clemens being available, though he may only be available to the Yankees or Red Sox. The Astros could trade a BP arm in a package deal.

EDIT: Since I wrote this, the Astros have traded for a bat for the OF, Aubrey Huff.

Chicago - Sell

Needs: A new start. It's no longer a matter of 'if' Dusty will get canned, it's just a matter of time. The Cubs need a way to keep Wood and Price healthy and need more help in the rotation. Pierre was a terrible mistake as a leadoff guy and has moneyball GM's, and any GM with a brain, laughing. The Cubs should resist the urge to play veterans when young guys should be getting experience (Murton and Pagel in the OF). Cedeno isn't the answer at SS.

Chips: Veterans should be made available. Maddux has been thrown around as a possibility. Todd Walker is having a solid season and could certainly help a contender with a hole at 2nd. Jones is having a better season than should be expected and they should sell high. Prior and Wood aren't as untouchable as they have been in years past - Prior will cost a fortune and is unlikely to be moved, while Woods shouldn't get much interest with his contract and injury history.

Pittsburgh - Sell

Needs: A solid coaching staff throughout the organization, a better minor league overseer, and attention to investments (young talent). Pittsburgh needs to get some MLB-quality upgrades at Catcher, CF, RF and P. The team needs to build around Jason Bay and stop thinking Jack Wilson is a solid answer at SS. Duke and Perez have shown flashes of brilliance that were inexplicably met with the Pirates suggesting the young pitchers alter their deliveries - both pitchers have struggled ever since.

Chips: Craig Wilson has drawn a lot of interest, and now that Huff (Tampa Bay) has been moved, I expect teams like the Yankees to pursue him a little more aggressively. Casey could be moved, but his average distracts from almost non-existent power. Damaso Marte will draw interest. Kip Wells had team interested in him going into the season, but has been awful this year. Jose Castillo, Freddy Sanchez, and Joe Randa have had decent seasons thus far and could be interesting. The Pirates shouldn't trade Perez, but he's no longer unavailable. It's surprising that a team that has been so bad for so long is unable to establish a solid farm system, but I suppose that reflects on the poor management and lack of interest in the farm that has plagued this franchise for quite some time now.

Buy or Sell - NL EAST

2006-07-06T12:21:00.000-07:00

It looks like it's time for a change, both for some teams and the division. Atlanta's ridiculous reign on the NL east is all but over with the New Kings on the Block winning not only the battle of the back pages in NYC, but the division. Philly could contend, but with a new GM who wants to his mark on the team, and a woefully performing squad with little heart, it's time for change. Florida is doing what we have grown to expect after a World Series, having a changing of the guard. The young squad, composed of many Futures Game graduates, is exciting to watch. With all major salary concerns shed, Florida should stand pat for the most part.

New York - Buy

Needs: New York is desperate for pitching, especially with Martinez, Zambrano and Bannister on the DL - how much do you think they wish they could reverse the ill-fated Kazmir trade? There has been a lot of talk about acquiring Hernandez, which would help, but also cost a ton. If the Mets want to stand a chance against the AL, they need a more potent offense and could stand to improve by upgrading LF or RF with a power hitter, perhaps Soriano if the Mets can put together enough in return, but it's not their biggest need. With the over hyped Reyes hurt, the Mets would be better with some power at SS (Lugo?), even if it meant shifting Reyes back to 2nd upon his return, which would strengthen the IF production offensively and defensively.

Chips: Lastings Milledge will be the asking price for any team the Mets talk to. Beyond that, the system is pretty barren after off-season trades. Heilman could be of use and some teams still see him as a #3 or #4 starter, and Nady is still pretty young with solid power potential. The Mets best bet for a trade is taking on unwanted salaries.

Philadelphia - Sell

Needs: Philly needs to sack up and sell - this team needs a complete overhaul from the top on down. There is a chance they could contend for a Wild Card, but that has been the case for several years with the same result - the Phillies don't have the heart to compete and are far too content to lose (as phormer-phil Wagner noted recently). Philly needs pitching, preferably pitchers that don't beat their wives and then get trotted out to pitch the next day (this also illustrates the need for change throughout the organization). The bullpen is okay, but they need to drop Rhodes down to lower-leverage innings. They could use a catcher with Lieberthal a perennial DL tourist. On paper, this team looks good though, so it's mind boggling that they consistently underperforms expectations. This team needs heart, passion, and competitive drive.

Chips: Philly should put everyone on the market except Howard, Utley, Floyd, Gordon, Howard, and Rollins. The Phillies won't get talent back for Abreu and Burrell without eating money, which will be hard to justify since they are largely footing the bill for an MVP candidate (Thome) to play elsewhere. Cormier is having a great season, and there will be contenders in dire need of a solid lefty BP arm; I would imagine the Phillies could get a solid catching or OF prospect for Cormier, possibly even a pitcher. Dellucci is a solid player that could help teams in need of a 3rd or 4th OFer and a good bat off the bench. The Phillies can sell BP arms to contenders, as they almost always fetch more in return than they are worth.

Atlanta - Sell or Hold

Needs: Some of the best analysts out there say Atlanta will be a buyer, but I just don't see it. This is a team out of the division, and 7.5 back in the Wild Card - that doesn't sound like a buyer to me. Combine their mandate to pare payroll, an already-young team, and futile playoff hopes, and I expect that some of their veterans will be available for the right price. The biggest need of this team is experience, with so many 1st, and 2nd year players in integral roles. The underperformance of LaRoche and Giles in the IF has been part of the reason for Atlanta's struggles, but don't need replacing since they are both relatively young with decent upside. Langerhans has had some youthful trouble as well in LF, and pitchers seem to be using Francoeur's aggressiveness against him. The rotation is average, but the bullpen is absolutely brutal and allows teams to approach a game with the intent to get through the starter and attack the bullpen.

Chips: There has been a lot of talk about Smoltz being moved, but the price will be high, and rightfully so. Atlanta needs a top pitching prospect to part with any of its starters. Though the rumors aren't fully heated up about Hudson, he could fetch quite a ransom with a track record in the AL and an incredibly cheap deal - though the asking price would dissuade all but the most talent-rich teams and moving him would be quite the blockbuster deal. Jones is a free agent after next season and a top centerfielder who has struggled having to carry the bulk of the offensive weight this year. Like Hudson, he's signed to a bargain and would only be involved in a blockbuster - which is a nice way of saying I don't see it happening unless a team like the Dodgers or Angels are willing to part with prized prospects.

Florida - Hold

Needs: Florida needs experience right now, with the majority of their roster still wet behind the ears. The Marlins could use some help in CF and LF down the line, and should target appropriate prospects should they make any moves. The rotation is young, but average, and should improve with seasoning. The bullpen and infield are strengths.

Chips: Willis is the big chip most talked about, though the Marlins aren't in any rush to move him. They will not move him without extracting some serious talent in return and have continually suggested talks will only start if they are offered a pitcher as good as Willis, but cheaper and younger. Which is to say, it's not going to happen. None of their young arms will be moved, but veterans Herges and Borowski are having solid seasons in the bullpen and could be moved to a contender. Back-up corner IF Helms should be available if there is any interest.

Washington - Sell

Needs: Washington's 2005 season is similar to KC's 2003 season - it probably did more harm than good by convincing the Nats that they were ready to compete. This team needs to get healthy, with nine Nats on the DL (including and incredible EIGHT pitchers). They have several starters who should be bench players or worse, including their SS (Neither Guzman, on the DL, or Clayton should be starting), CF (Jackson is a career back-up), and Guillen. The Nats' back-ups should be in AAA or lower. Schneider, while superior defensively, is decidedly lacking with the bat in 2006. The rotation needs an overhaul beyond the workhorse Hernandez.

Chips: Soriano is talked about daily by teams needing some added pop in the line-up, but the Nats are asking for top pitching talent in return for a rental. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels could certainly use him, among other teams. Hernandez has also been thrown around by any team needing pitching (Read: every contending team). Chad Cordero has been a solid closer and could help a contender in the same role, or as an above-average set-up man. Mike Stanton has had a mid-season change of address 4 times in his career and would be of interest to a team looking for a lefty out of the pen. Majewski has been good, but I don't know if the Nats would be willing to move him. Previous to his DL stint, Armas, Jr. had been scouted by several teams looking to bolster their rotations, and may switch teams depending on his performance upon returning.

Buy or Sell - AL WEST

2006-06-27T18:35:00.000-07:00

In past years, AL West teams competed with the juggernauts from the AL East for the American League Wild Card, and three of the four teams were routinely buying at the deadline. However, with the dominance of the AL Central, and the strength of the AL East, it grows increasingly unlikely by the game that two West Coast teams will make the cut. With all four teams within 4.0 games of first, I suspect two or three teams will be buying at the deadline to gear up for what has usually been an exhilarating pennant race.

Oakland: Buy

Needs: Billy Beane excels at putting together spare parts to make a solid team, while integrating new and old players to maximize production. He also is known for getting between trades and extracting talent he wants, almost as a fee for facilitating a trade. Beane could use more production from his Catcher, with Kendall underperforming his career numbers, but it isn't a priority. 1st base has also been a weakness offensively, though Johnson has been solid with the glove and is there for the long-term. Bubba Crosby has struggled in '06, though I'm not sure the A's are actively searching for an upgrade. 2nd has been a weakness with Ellis and Scutaro, and certainly would be among the easier positions to upgrade. The A's have received pretty good production from their OFers, with the exception of Milton Bradley who is playing himself out of a great contract (though he is behaving). I wonder if they would want fellow pain-in-the-a$$, Carl Everett, who will be available?

Chips: The big one is Zito, who has been solid in his contract year. Zito could probably stand to improve in front of a better defense, but Beane will not trade him for anything less than a small ransom with the Athletics positioned to make the playoffs. Kendall could go, as could any number of infielders (Chavez will be safe). Another starter could go in the right deal once Harden returns from the DL. Beane has a habit of inflating the value of pitchers by putting them in the bullpen, swapping them, and getting serious talent in return. I expect two BP members to go, though I admittedly have no idea who will go (Street will be safe). Beane is open to just about any deal, provided he gets his price (and when doesn't he?).

Texas: Buy

Needs: This team would have been even more of a beast had they been able to convince Soriano to play LF for them, instead of trading for Wilkerson, who could be upgraded at the deadline. Teixeira has suddenly lost all of his power at first, unexplainably unless he's hiding an injury or skeleton in his closet, but it doesn't make sense to replace one of the game's most promising young players. The Rangers possess a great offense and don't even need much of a boost in that department, but could certainly use some pitching with a rotation full of #3-#5 starters and an abysmal bullpen below closer Otsuka.

Chips: The Rangers had been trying to move Blalock in the off-season, and he's having a great season. With DeRosa also having a good season, the Rangers could move Blalock for pitching and move DeRosa into the IF. The Rangers have some prospects they could move for talent (pitcher John Danks has done well since arriving in Oklahoma), but don't have a particularly deep system right now. They could move a mediocre pitcher as part of a deal for an upgrade. The Rangers have a lot of OFers and guys who can multiple positions, increasing flexibility for either the Rangers or a trading partner, and one or more OFers could be packaged to improve other aspects of the team.

Seattle: Sell

Needs: Seattle is technically still in the race for the AL WEST pennant, but we all know they aren't really in it - they need to swap old bodies out for younger players. Seattle needs a complete overhaul of the rotation, short of King Felix. Sexton (.294 OBP?) and Beltre have battled all season for title of "Most Overpaid Mariner" and drastically underperformed expectations and their contracts. Both are such albatrosses, it'll be tough to swap them out for an improvement. Betancourt has a tough time getting on base. CF has been a weakness with Reed having an adjustment year offensively and currently on the DL. Guardado hasn't been an ideal set-up guy.

Chips: As sure as I am the sun will rise again tomorrow - I am sure that some pitching-hungry team will talk itself into taking some of the underperforming pitching off the Mariners' hands by assuming they just need a change of scenery. Guardado always has suitors, though his lagging numbers may make him less appealing this year (EDIT: Guardado has since been moved the Reds). Piniero and Moyer, maybe even Meche and Washburn, could go to contenders so desperate for a warm body to bolster their rotation. The Mariners would love to move Beltre, but it's not going to happen this year. Last year teams were interested in Reed, though this year that probably won't be an issue. Ibanez has been solid in the OF, and could be up for grabs for a team looking to fix a hole in the OF. Surprisingly, the bullpen has been okay and the Mariners could use some of those arms to get good talent back, should they decide that they are better off retooling for 2007 and beyond.

Los Angeles: Buy

Needs: Conventional wisdom says that the last-place team sells, but I have my doubts about LAA, if only because the payroll is so high and they are still within a solid winning streak of first place. However, the smart move would be to hang onto their youth, even if it means not contending for the playoffs. If they can make their upgrades (and there are plenty of holes) without losing the depth of their farm, the Angels will be in terrific shape. The primary need of the Angels is hitting - without solid offensive protection of Guerrero, the line-up is much easier to get around. The Angels need better players than Rivera and Anderson, who is sub par, starting in the OF. There have been rumors about the Nats' Soriano, though renting him (he's a FA after the season) will probably cost a pitcher and top prospect. Burrell and Abreu of the Phillies could both drastically alter the make-up of the Angels, and with expensive long-term contracts, the Angels could hold onto their prospects. Kennedy has been weak at 2nd, and the Angels could stand to improve offensively behind the plate. Injuries have hurt production at 1st (Kotchman) and 3rd (McPherson), so the return of both players should help greatly.

Chips: The Angels have an exceptionally strong system, especially with infielders Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Woods (plus Morales and Kotchman at 1st base, and McPherson at 3rd). They are one of the few teams with the trading power to acquire just about anyone. Ervin Santana is another possibility for the right deal. The Angels found little in the way of value for the elder Weaver, an inning-eating veteran. Supersub and starter Figgins is a valuable trading chip to any team with an IF or OF need, but also valuable to the Angels in a playoff run - especially with so many offensive holes throughout the line-up.

Buy or Sell - AL CENTRAL

2006-06-27T18:19:00.000-07:00

This is an interesting division with, debatably, the two tops teams: The White Sox and the Tigers. Beyond that, Cleveland and Minnesota have solid cores of young, homegrown players, with little need to pare payroll and hope for contention in the near future. Then, well, Kansas City shouldn't even count at this point; with ownership pocketing all revenue-sharing money and refusing to put anything back into the team.

Detroit: Buy

Needs: Since a hot start, Shelton has cooled down substantially, so the Tigers could use some help at 1st. They also could use an upgrade to the OF, preferably a LHH, making the DRays' Huff an ideal solution to fill both roles, as well as providing further depth on the bench. Detroit is one of the few teams with an entire pitching corps in little need of upgrading.

Chips: Detroit could trade some of its role players who provide depth in the middle infield or outfield, but this core should stay the same. Detroit could be willing to take on a salary for the right talent. Kyle Sleeth (P) is coming off of a major injury, but was a top Detroit prospect as recently as last year. Humberto Sanchez (P) and Tony Giarratano (SS) could also be used to acquire talent.

Chicago: Buy or hold

Needs: Alex Cintron has a decent average at SS, but I would be surprised to see the Pale Hose to look for a little more power available from the SS slot (Lugo? Tejeda?). Brian Anderson has struggled at the MLB level, so they could stand to upgrade their CF if possible. The Sox have one of the best-rounded squads in the league right now and need little or no help in the BP, rotation, IF or OF.

Chips: The White Sox have some available OF depth at the minor league level (R. Sweeney, J. Owens) that could be moved if need be. With the return of some BP arms, the Sox could move an extra arm in the right deal.

Minnesota: Sell

Needs: The Twins are unlikely to catch either the White Sox or the Tigers for the division, nor are they likely to be able to compete with the AL East (Toronto, Boston, and New York) or AL West (Texas, Anaheim) runners-up. However, in the event that they continue their current tear and want to keep fans coming to the park, the Twins could use some help in the rotation, as well as an upgrade at one of 3rd or 2nd. The bullpen could use some help behind the stellar Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon.

Chips: Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Santana, Liriano and Nathan are safe. Beyond that, nothing would surprise me. It's in their best interest to move some parts and retool for '07 and '08. Lohse has been on the market, and as the deadline approaches, somebody will quite probably bite. Radke could be moved to pare payroll, as well as any number of bullpen arms. The Twins have a crew of OFers that could provide additional depth or outright improvement for several contenders weak at the position (Yankees!), so I would expect two or more of their OFers (Hunter, Ford, White, Sierra, and Cuddyer) to relocate - if not by the trading deadline, then by spring training of '07.

Cleveland: Sell

Needs: Cleveland is a team built for the future and probably outperformed expectations last year, causing premature playoff hopes for this year. Because the Indians are out of it, they don't have many needs currently for their squad, especially with the young core of players they have assembled. The Indians could use some long-term help in the bullpen and will be looking for young arms in any trade. They certainly could stand to improve their OF depth.

Chips: With prospect Andy Marte waiting in the wings, the Indians will probably move Aaron Boone before the trading deadline. There is some interest in Westbrook, but the Indians will want pitching in return for the effective pitcher. There may also be interest in Byrd. If the Indians are wise, they will move Wickman before the deadline, as closers tend to have exaggerated value for contending teams in dire need of bullpen help. Broussard should generate interest, and the Indians should sell high, especially with Garko stashed away and a catcher who may be a better fit at 1st (Martinez). The Indians have a chance this trading season to fix some impending holes for the 2007 season, so I would be surprised to see them stand pat.

Kansas City: Sell (not much to sell, though)

Needs: Is it fair to say they need everything? Kansas City needs to put a ton of revenue sharing money into their farm system, because they can't compete by going after free agents. Kansas City needs to trade for minor leaguers, and may need to take some chances on fringe prospects for any serviceable MLBers they can move. KC has swung and missed on some trades capable of bringing substantial talent into the system - maybe new GM Moore will be able to use his Braves' experience to build from the bottom up.

Chips: KC needs to move former ROY Angel Berroa, especially with German doing well in limited innings at short (and 2nd). Grudzielanek could help a contender; Graffanino, Mienkiewicz, Sanders, could solidify someone's bench. Sweeney is the biggest chip that could be moved to someone in need of a bat. The Royals better get something back for him if they ever want to be out of the basement.

Buy or Sell - AL EAST

2006-06-26T11:10:00.000-07:00

Boston: Buyer

Needs: The Sox could use another quality starter, rather than relying on Johnson or Snyder down the stretch, especially with the injury concerns of several starters. Clement could take a role as a 5th starter when off the DL, but don't expect anything from Wells. The Sox could use a back-up 1b who can possibly fill in the OF, which explains the rumors that the Sox have renewed interest in CO's Ryan Shealy again (after the botched Shoppach trade of '05). My gut feeling and everything the FO has said leads me to believe they will stick with the young guns, for better or worse, in the BP. I think the Sox will stick with their current IF and will call up Pedroia if there are middle IF injuries. WMP will help with our OF and bench depth, and Murphy has been on fire in AAA, so could be a call-up if we have any banged up OFers.

Trading Chips: Expect to see rumors about scapegoats Matt Clement (P), Julian Tavarez (P), and Rudy Seanez (P) if the young guys prove capable of pressure situations in the next month. Abe Alvarez (P) and Jermaine Van Buren (P) could be helpful as a starter or longman for some teams. It wouldn't be an off-season without Manny rumors, though the only feasible trading partner now is LAA or maybe surprise contender DET (who would rather a LHH). The Sox could move Clay Buccholtz (P), Edgar Martinez (P) or Michael Bowden (P) for the right piece, but they are unlikely to. David Murphy will be one of our biggest available chips.

New York: Buyer

Needs: The Yankees need pitching - both starting and relief. Their starting rotation has multiple injury and age concerns and without Mussina, would be among the worst corps in starting ERA. The bullpen is a sub-par veteran core anchored by Rivera. After possibly season-ending injuries to Matsui and Sheffield, as well as an injury to back-up Crosby, the Yankees are desperate for OF help - thus, the interest in former Yankee Soriano.

Trading Chips: The Yankees would be wise to hang onto Cano, but sell Cabrera while his stock is high (provided they can get an OFer). Because the Yankees have such a weak farm system, expect most trading partners to demand Philip Hughes, the highly touted pitching prospect. Duncan, a popular trading target in 05, has had his stock drop in '06. There aren't too many appealing or moveable contracts with the big club.

Toronto: Buyer

Needs: With a fragile A.J. Burnett in the rotation, Chacin on the DL, the awful Towers as the #4 pitcher, and the rookie Janssen in the rotation - the Blue Jays could really use some pitching help. The Blue Jays have a weak defense, particularly in the middle infield, where a solid defensive shortstop with even an average bat would be a marked upgrade and allow the Jays to platoon to their strengths at 2nd. Like all contenders, the Jays could stand to add some solid BP arms to put behind lights-out closer BJ Ryan and solid Speiers. Lastly, a starting-caliber OFer to start next to Vernon Wells and Alex Rios would be helpful, though the Jays certainly have more than enough players to cover all outfield slots with room to burn.

Chips: Toronto still has a weak farm system, particularly after trades for Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay (both of whom have worked out well for the Jays). While the Jays need a better starting OFer, they have several OFers (and IFers) capable of boosting depth for other teams as a back-up. Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanatto and Eric Hinske often are dangled at this time of year; don't expect this year to be different. Russ Adams or Aaron Hill could be dangled. The biggest change for the Blue Jays is now they can afford to absorb a bad salary to acquire talent, much like division-mates the Red Sox and Yankees.

Tampa Bay: Hold/Lateral moves

Needs: Tampa has a glut of valuable OFers, and a solid middle infield, while suffering from an extreme lack of pitching. They need starters to put behind Kazmir, as well as BP arms.

Chips: Teams will try to pry Crawford away from the DRays, but it's unlikely the Rays will trade one of their cornerstone players, especially since he's locked in at a reasonable price for the future. Teams will try to acquire Lugo, though that is unlikely to occur if Tampa keeps insisting on top prospects for an average-to-above-average SS on the brink of free agency. Huff is widely rumored to be coveted by Detroit - expect him to switch uniforms. Hendrickson will also draw eyes and I wouldn't be surprised to see him move by year's end. Largely, though, Tampa isn't in a position where making moves will give them a chance at the AL East (though they could be contenders in several other divisions), and they don't need to pare payroll to the point that trades make financial sense, so their roster should stay about the same with some lateral moves that replace players approaching free agency with some younger talent.

Baltimore: Seller

Needs: It's hardly fair to point out ONE need when the entire team needs a revamping. Other than SS, 2nd and RF - they could use a lot of help

Chips: Everything has got to go! If the Orioles are smart, they will realize the futility of the team as currently composed, and trade their biggest chip - Tejeda. They are more likely to receive a good deal in return, however, if they move him during the off-season. The O's should be willing to move any and all of their pitchers, with the exception of Cabrera. Trading away their meager pitching will only make the team worse in the interim, but should net them some prospects, if done correctly. This is a blow-it-up team if there ever were one with little hope on the horizon due to a weak minor league system.

Sox Needs - Back-up First Baseman

2006-06-21T07:32:00.000-07:00

To honor my favorite time of the season, I’ll be going over the Sox biggest trade needs in the approaching weeks, as well as analyzing some possible solutions. Keep coming back – I’m really going to try and keep this blog up-to-date.

Back-Up 1st baseman – Not a top priority, especially since the Sox may end up with Snow back on the roster if nobody takes a flyer. However, it would be nice to have someone available to give Youkilis or Lowell a day off (b/c Youkilis fills in for Lowell). One might argue you can skate by with Ortiz as a back-up, especially when Wily Mo Pena returns. However, my concern is in the later innings of a close game where Francona would be unable to pinch run for Youkilis because nobody could take over first without a steep defensive AND offensive dropoff during high-leverage innings. Ideally a second 1st baseman would be a solid bat off the bench – a better option than Harris or Mohr had been, perhaps better than Kapler. A bat isn’t needed, especially when Pena returns, but it would be ideal, especially since the Sox do not need a defensive replacement for late innings.

Internal Possibilities – Choi isn’t the answer. He has struggled in the minors this year and doesn’t give us a whole lot to work with. Snow could very well be back if there is no interest in him by other teams.

External Possibilities – I know analysts are convinced Huff is going to Detroit, but he would certainly fit the bill here, as well as giving us a guy capable of playing all over the diamond. Perhaps Craig Wilson (yes, he plays 1st too) would work, as he's having a solid season. Unfortunately there are starters available, but not solid offensive guys who will likely be content as back-ups. In an unusual twist, the Sox do not need a defensive wizard on our bench, as our starter is quite possibly one of the top defensive 1b in the league. The Sox could use a guy who plays 1st and 3rd, or a guy who plays 1st and the OF to maximize roster flexibility, and I think Huff fits the bill. Perhaps LeCroy or Fick from Washington as they have all types of depth in the OF and at 1b and a GM desparate to make a good impression on new ownership.

Final Word: This may be a waiver-wire trade later in the season, but the Sox really need somebody to spell Youkilis on occasion - be it Snow or someone we are not yet aware of. Acquiring a back-up 1b shouldn't cost much talent from our roster and should be a relatively easy move to make, but it's not a top priority.

Sox Needs - Effective Lefty-Killer

2006-06-21T07:30:00.000-07:00

Effective Reliever against Lefties – Notice, I did not say LOOGY. The Sox like the flexibility of having relievers than don’t need to be restricted to one specific set of circumstances – thus putting an unneeded burden on other members of the BP. Lopez was acquired as a possible option, but the Sox probably would prefer a veteran and I would imagine this will be a top priority as we approach trading season.

Internal Possibilities – Lopez could prove himself. Abe Alvarez is a lefty, but hasn’t been used in the BP. Also, he puts far too many runners on base to be relied upon to face lefties (and righties) in key situations, as I would expect the Sox are looking for in this relief role. The Sox, if they can’t acquire a lefty-out-machine, could just opt to try and improve their overall BP by giving the younger arms (Delcarmen, Hansen) a chance – especially since championship teams have had all-righty BP and succeeded b/c of depth, more than specialization.

External Possibilities – Epstein usually goes for smaller names in his relief acquisitions, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone we haven’t heard much about. The higher-recognition names fetch handsome ransoms, ransoms I am not sure these eyes-on-the-future Sox will be willing to pay for the short-term.

Final Word: We will see a trade for someone to fit this role if Lopez doesn’t excel within the next couple of weeks. While I believe Epstein has the intestinal fortitude to stick it out with an all-righty pen, with the instability of Foulke's health, we need somebody capable of coming in and systematically sitting down lefties. Like a speedy base stealer, the lefty-specialist is something the Sox have spoiled themselves with in the past – I bet they are incapable of kicking the habit.

Sox Needs - Starting Pitching

2006-06-21T07:28:00.000-07:00

Starting Pitching – The Sox always like to see what other options there are out there, especially when forced to employ a Royals castoff (Snyder) for a spot start – even if he bears a striking resemblance to former-Sox Arroyo.. The Sox have Schilling, Beckett and Wakefield firmly established in the rotation – though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Beckett have some DL concerns as we approach the summer. Wells will not be back – call it a gut feeling, perhaps even a fairly substantial gut feeling. Clement has had a rough season, but certainly can be an effective #4 or #5 pitcher provided he is both physically and mentally ready to pitch. However, the Sox would probably move him if there were any takers (I wouldn’t expect there to be without a solid chunk of money thrown in).

Internal Possibilities – Lester seems to have a lock on a rotation slot until he proves he isn’t ready for MLB, yet. While I expect growing pains, I also hope that he can pitch us to a .500 record in his starts. Abe Alvarez is a possibility, but he just puts far too many people on base right now to trust him in MLB against patient hitters who aren’t trying to pad their individual stats to get to The Show, but rather, are trying to win ballgames. Pauley could be helpful, especially with our defense behind the sinkerballer. The Sox simply want to get him some stability right now, so don’t expect another call up just yet. Then there is Snyder. He’s never put it all together, possibly due to injuries. Could he be this year’s Aaron Small? He kept the Sox in the 1st game of his Red Sox career for a win.

External Possibilities - As always, the price will be high for pitching. There will be several current or former studs possibly on the market in Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Willis and Schmidt. All will have big asking prices, and equally big question marks. The Sox are a team that could possibly afford the talent, though many would simply be rentals. Of those players, I could see the Sox having the most interest in Hudson or Willis – both of whom are locked into contracts for good dollars. Unlike Willis, however, Hudson has proven himself in the AL. I could see the Sox being concerned about Willis’ overuse and NL-to-AL transition in response to the Josh Beckett experiment (and similarly, the Redman experiment, Penny experiment, and Burnett experiment other teams have run to varying degrees of failure). Atlanta will be selling, and because they want to pare payroll, I could see the asking price for Hudson being manageable and costing some young arms (Like Bowden and Bucholtz, not Lester). If nothing else, Hudson is relatively cheap for a man with a solid MLB track record and he eats innings for a team.

After the big names, you have the retreads – which I could see going to teams with lesser farm systems. That list includes Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez, Kip Wells, Jamie Moyer, Russ Ortiz,, Kyle Lohse, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Sox acquire a store-brand pitcher if the asking prices are overly extravagant for the name-brands – granted I won’t be happy because none of these players are likely to be improvements and are more likely to turn out like the ill-fated Suppan trade of 2003. For those focusing on our friendly competitors to the South, I fully expect a pitcher of this caliber to end up in pinstripes – the Yanks simply do not have the prospects to acquire a bigger name without taking on a salary dump – and the teams selling better pitchers don’t have too many unmanageable contracts.

One name I’d be interested to see on the market is Greinke, who has hit a wall in Kansas City and is rumored to be ready to leave baseball. I would trade for him now as a project for the future, but I suppose that is neither here nor there. Expect a random AAA pitcher to be claimed off waivers by the Sox, as always – possibly Greinke as he only has 5 days on his DL stint until he needs to be optioned.

Final Word: I doubt the Sox will acquire one of the bigger names, but they certainly have the prospects to make a move, or at least raise the asking price for other teams (ahem, Yankees). I could see Hudson arriving in Fenway, but his career record when playing in front of the Monster is less-than-inspiring. I see a lesser-pitcher acquisition as a waste, but I wouldn’t be surprised, depending on how Clement comes back after his DL stint. The Sox best option for now and the future may simply be sticking with what is already in our system. If we can get to the playoffs, the 5th pitcher won’t matter.

EDIT: The Sox just picked up Jason Johnson from Cleveland - a groundball-inducing veteran. He's more likely to get starts than Snyder at this point.

Empire Returns

2006-05-02T19:33:00.000-07:00

Sox Vs. Yankees - Return of Johnny Pt. 2: Delayed due to rain.

Return of the Empire . . . Johnny 'Judas' Damon tipped his cap in the first inning to salute the overwhelming boos of the crowd. Boos briefly turned into the last cheers Johnny heard during a rather unsuccessful evening. After the game, he announced his biggest supporter (and pumpkin-dropping expert), Michelle Damon, did not make the trip. The Damons apparently decided that while the Missus would have been able to take on the crowd at 'old' Fenway, the added attendance from the revamped EMC and Pavilion areas would have been too much and swiftly ended her quest to protect her husband.

Fan were treated to a back-and-forth match with great pitching and defense being played by both sides. Both second basemen, Cano and Loretta, made nice stabs at line drives finding the hole. With the shift on for Giambi, the Sox stole an out at 1st. With Cora at second pointing to third, and Jeter still unsure if the ball had gotten past Youkilis - Captain Intangibles took a trademarked aggressive rounding of 2nd base, hoping for extra bases. While often times teams have weak hrowers at 1st, Youkilis, a third basemen by trade, has no such problem and fired to the bag after seeing Jeter round the base. Cora snuck in behind Jeter and blocked the bag with both legs. While Jeter beat the throw to the base, he found nothing but leg and Cora slapped the tag down, with Jeter still earching for the base. End of inning.

In a night where the wind was fast becoming a story for conspiring to keep the game a low-scoring affair by knocking down home run after home run (including a probable grand slam by Wily Mo Pena), Papi's blast was the ultimate statement of power. David Ortiz hit a shot into the teeth of the gusting winds to the deepest part of the field, dead center. Jonathan Papelbon settled under the towering fly ball and caught it several feet deep in the bullpen. the homerun put the Sox up 4 with Papelbon ready in the BP.

When newly-shorn Papelbon took the hill in the top of the 9th, the Yankees got their first look at the Rookie of the Month closer. Papelbon sat AROD down by way of the K, and sat down the following two batters without much difficulty. While Damon and teammates took to the showers in the visitor clubhouse, Sox fans celebrated another night of dirty water and the luxury of a shut down closer succeeding against the Yankees.

Over valuing prospects - two in the bush vs one in hand

2006-04-26T20:34:00.000-07:00

Whenever a trade rumor or deadline comes up - the debate arises again: Are top-tiered prospects more or less valuable than proven major-leaguers? Often one side of the debate points to past Sox prospects abysmal track record of success (more appropriately - the lack of success) as a reason why prospects such as Marte, H. Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez should be traded for legitimate big league prospects. Are we overvaluing our prospects here? Or have the Sox made remarkable headway in our minor league system? Is it fair to project Brian Rose and Carl Pavano's failure to reach expectations to the careers of Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester? How about comparing can't miss prospect, Michael Coleman's, disappearance to the career projections for Jacoby Ellsbury? What about offering Donnie Sadler's failure as a reason for trading Hanley Ramirez or Dustin Pedroia? Is it fair to use the failure of past prospects as a reason to promote trades for MLB-proven players?

I do not think such comparisons are fair to use to project the future failure of our current prospects. Frankly, the minor league systems of the past were weak in years past. While the Sox were trotting out lower-tier prospects for MLB failure (lower tier prospects by MLB standards, but prospects who ranked among our best prospects), teams with strong systems produced impact players on a consistent basis (The Dodgers come to mind). I looked to compare current players versus players from the 90's.

Jonathan Papelbon ® vs. Brian Rose ®

I looked to compare the two based on their minor league stats at specific levels and found one striking thing - it is impossible to do so. While Papelbon was allowed to succeed and build up confidence at the various levels before promotion, Brian Rose simply was promoted after a short amount of success, not allowing enough time to determine if his success was due to chance or some other factor. Rose was customarily promoted and demoted at the slightest sign of difficulty - usually spending very few innings at a level before the next promotion or demotion. It appears he was often promoted with little reason for doing so. While some demotions were because of injury, others were reactionary to poor performance. Such changes probably negatively affected confidence level and encouraged Rose to pitch for results, rather than pitch to improve certain mechanics and mastery of pitches. I have to wonder if Rose would have been such a bust with a less-rushed promotion schedule.

I compared Rose with Papelbon merely because of their handedness - perhaps Jon Lester would be more appropriate because both Lester and Rose were selected as high schoolers. However, even that comparison runs into issues because while Lester has been challenged by the Sox with aggressive promotions, he is also given the benefit of extended time at each assigned level - and even repeated A-ball - something that Rose surely would have benefited from. Lester is currently enduring some growing pains at the AAA level - but it seems part of that is due to the focus on his pitches, rather than the Sox focusing on results (as was expected of Rose). All in all, I do not believe Brian Rose's failure should be used as reasoning for the impending failure of upper-tier Sox pitching prospects, nor should Rose's failure be offered as reasons for trading pitching prospects away from MLB-proven players. It appears the Rose's ascent to the majors was grossly mismanaged - perhaps increasing his injury risk (because he did not appear to spend enough time changing mechanics to decrease injury risk - as the Sox have now spent time doing with several new pitching prospects).

Let's look at another 90's pitching prospect, Carl Pavano, who was more properly handled, and compare his success with that of Jon Lester and Papelbon.

Lester -(19) A: 106.0IP 3.65ERA 8.66H/9 3.74BB/9 6.03K/9 1.61K/BB 1.38WHIP
Pavano (19) A: 141.0IP 3.45ERA 7.53H/9 3.32BB/9 8.81K/9 2.65K/BB 1.21WHIP
Lester (20) A+: 90.1IP 4.28ERA 8.17H/9 3.69BB/9 9.66K/9 2.62K/BB 1.32WHIP
Papel (23) A+: 129.2IP 2.64ERA 6.73H/9 2.98BB/9 10.6K/9 3.56K/BB 1.08WHIP

Lester -(21) AA: 148.1IP 2.61ERA 6.92H/9 3.46BB/9 9.89K/9 2.86K/BB 1.15WHIP
Pavano (20) AA: 184.2IP 2.63ERA 7.51H/9 2.29BB/9 7.12K/9 3.11K/BB 1.09WHIP
Papelbon (24) AA: 87.0IP 2.48ERA 6.10H/9 2.38BB/9 8.59K/9 3.61K/BB 0.94WHIP

AAA - Neither Lester or Papelbon has enough time in AAA to compare . . .

First thing . . . it's clear that Papelbon is in a class of his own of the three pitchers, though he is older and had collegiate experience. However, Pavano and Lester compare quite well. Using Pavano's stats to suggest we are overvaluing Lester certainly seems like a valid argument, as does using Pavano's career track to justify trading Lester for MLB-proven pitching. However, it is important to note that Lester and Pavano are completely different pitchers. Lester is a strikeout pitcher with a hard fastball, while Pavano is far more proficient at pounding the plate. Lester has bouts of wildness. If Lester does not learn to stay in the strike zone more, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pitching career similar to Pavano's. However, because he is still raw in terms of control, there is a possibility that if that is harnessed - Lester will become an upper-tier pitcher. It is that reasoning that prevents many fans from considering trading Lester. His current level is Pavano-esque in terms of success in MLB (minus the injury history), but he still has a ceiling that is quite attainable - resulting in a much higher trade value than Pavano.

Last example: Donnie Sadler Vs. Hanley Ramirez. While Ramirez is no longer with the Sox, he, like Sadler, was a young 'tools' player that spent time in the Sox system. Pedroia, meanwhile, was selected after college primarily because of performance (not tools).

Sadler (19) Rk: 206AB .272AVG .349OBP .3833SLG .732OPS
Ramire (18) Rk: 164AB .341AVG .402OBP .555SLG .957OPS (Also did well at A- as an 18 y.o.)

Sadler (20) A: 438AB .283AVG .396OBP .438SLG .834OPS
Ramir (19) A: 422AB .275AVG .327OBP .403SLG .730OPS
Ramir (20) A+: 239AB .310AVG .364OBP .389SLG .753OPS (Also put up similar stats in AA as a 20 y.o.)

Sadler (21) AA: 454AB .267AVG .328OBP .385SLG .713OPS
Ramir (21) AA: 465AB .271AVG .335OBP .385SLG .720OPS

While Ramirez had quite an advantage younger - it appears that while it doesn't seem like Sadler should be compared to Ramirez - statistically they appear to be quite comparable. It should be noted that the two are not similar in frame. Also, Ramirez, played in a pitcher-friendly league, though I admittedly have no idea about Sadler. It appears, based on minor league stats, that there is a possibility that Ramirez could turn out to be similar to Sadler in the long term (which would make the Beckett trade more favorable), though Hanley has already had some success at the MLB level.

I must say I'm minorly surprised to see the statistic similarities between some of the Sox's highly touted prospects of today vs. days past. While Papelbon clearly holds his own, John Lester has experienced similar results as Pavano - who is a solid (but not great) MLB starter when healthy. Lester pitches differently (power pitcher), which could bode well for future projections, but there is also reason to be hesitant and consider trading him for a proven MLB player.

Ramirez is no longer with the Sox, instead off to a hot start with the Marlins (though he has faced some pitching-weak teams). However, while I originally expected him to compare quite favorably to fellow-tools prospect Sadler, Ramirez has put up similar numbers at a similar age as Sadler back in the 90's.

I wonder if the strength of our system isn't so much in that we have higher-caliber prospects, but that we simply have more prospects that could flourish or fizzle. It does appear, however, that I (as well as many others) may be a wee bit overenthusiastic about the improved quality of prospect our system is turning out. In reality, our current class of players should be no less likely to fizzle than past classes - yet our increased depth should increase our chances of success from the farm system.

All Not Wells?

2006-04-21T11:57:00.000-07:00

David Wells, 42, looks to be out longer than previous reports indicating a relatively short DL stint. Wells has had knee difficulties over the past season, causing him to miss starts and start the 2006 season on the DL, much to his dismay. Wells has incentives built into his contract that increase his salary based on starts made. Well returned to the Sox for one start, pitching a mere 4 innings while allowing 7 earned runs, before being returned to the DL for a second stint in April.

Wells, who has pitched in Major League Baseball for 20 years for 8 different franchises, has expressed concern about receiving any injections into his hobbled knees. Fellow teammate, Keith Foulke, received a series of SynVisc injections in his knees during Spring Training, causing him to express optimism about the upcoming season. However, after recent appearances, Foulke has mentioned that the early benefits of the injections seem to no longer be present. Wells has openly questioned whether continuing to play may negatively affect his mobility and ability to spend time playing with his children. He is rumored to be considering retirement over further treatment.

In Wells' absence, fellow-lefty Lenny DiNardo, 26, made a spot start on Patriot's Day for the Boston Red Sox. DiNardo pitched five strong innings, allowing two runs in five innings. DiNardo pitched well for the PawSox in 2005, also succeeding in a start for the Red Sox in 2005, and performing well in limited bullpen duty over the 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Leaving Spring Training, the Red Sox had an abundance of starting pitching with several question marks. Young Jonathan Papelbon was expected to step into the rotation if the need arose, however, in lieu of Papelbon's dominance as a closer and Foulke's early season struggles, it seems unlikely the Sox will move Papelbon into the rotation.

Other candidates to start for the Red Sox include lefty Abe Alvarez, and Marc Deschenes - both among the International League Leaders in ERA at the AAA level. Give his performances to date, though, it looks like the job is DiNardo's for the time being.

In the coming weeks as we enter May, expect rumors to start swirling more intensely about a hotly-debated return to Boston by Roger Clemens. Clemens is rumored to be choosing between the Houston Astros (he cannot sign with them before May), the Texas Rangers, the New York Yankees, and the Boston Red Sox. It is rumored that Clemens would only return to a team capable of getting a title, though handicapping his choice largely depends on how much salary will play into the decision. The Texas teams have a large advantage if Clemens wants to continue to have the perks of last year - which included being close to home and not needing to attend games unless scheduled to pitch. Boston and New York both probably have better chances at a title and would be favorites if Clemens wants to return to add to his already-secured legacy.

While all may not be well with Wells, things are still well with the Boston Red Sox.